Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 82488.773942 87082.483398 91675.806695 96610.109780 101757.408732 106965.240743 112629.275652
2025-05-04 75407.971282 82473.686482 89737.048206 97751.432173 106336.106428 115245.434162 125180.279219
2025-05-11 69652.445769 78355.905096 87500.997291 97805.535706 109071.943330 120994.355736 134543.230218
2025-05-18 65318.683448 75244.381831 85866.872102 98046.296357 111589.078634 126149.861574 142952.488584
2025-05-25 61667.203307 72541.074944 84367.493220 98134.735044 113668.175251 130598.779969 150393.286503
2025-06-01 59213.968059 70964.247765 83927.708747 99221.511027 116698.921406 135975.541605 158768.899650
2025-06-08 56242.642577 68605.637541 82430.691835 98947.144501 118048.244008 139349.188406 164800.669568
2025-06-15 54637.549925 67711.719669 82509.568722 100386.456441 121279.771905 144806.037898 173174.411522
2025-06-22 52822.810785 66464.974111 82084.950600 101156.315426 123668.997008 149251.052554 180363.890548
2025-06-29 50820.325391 64895.639462 81192.637141 101295.020776 125252.654517 152714.778814 186387.435667
2025-07-06 48944.665734 63393.188128 80302.439480 101364.397989 126694.511708 155969.991055 192142.751121
2025-07-13 48132.731420 63137.804896 80867.057504 103142.548790 130148.142175 161587.469898 200696.757825
2025-07-20 47184.744731 62695.516856 81200.222933 104653.662738 133317.239745 166929.650925 209023.951352
2025-07-27 45895.048096 61779.577454 80915.633438 105382.472390 135526.257995 171130.713084 216018.079233
2025-08-03 44304.339717 60425.308027 80037.415192 105333.758325 136750.876813 174126.833612 221560.058736
2025-08-10 42947.097296 59316.785691 79419.369517 105566.266784 138288.721426 177483.438359 227536.357457
2025-08-17 41603.112779 58176.757980 78718.141626 105655.117688 139617.882224 180567.683806 233178.645178
2025-08-24 40822.683076 57736.925057 78877.651363 106807.709782 142260.876561 185263.682091 240813.996772
2025-08-31 39441.002258 56462.979527 77930.038099 106516.223092 143062.062761 187670.231066 245625.376173
2025-09-07 38924.888190 56313.299423 78413.428815 108043.928028 146157.969915 192932.129958 253999.765527
2025-09-14 38133.602887 55767.889242 78359.644758 108860.981837 148341.120784 197058.197856 260979.012487
2025-09-21 37101.356336 54865.025086 77809.317909 109008.182388 149649.413309 200079.773106 266582.743904
2025-09-28 36087.126650 53955.550927 77222.127750 109081.808570 150844.082229 202948.974402 271998.696124